Trades from 2 November, part deux
Posted by The Lonely Trader on November 11, 2008
The trade worksheets, as promised. Don’t pay any attention to the commentary. It’s half-assed.
04 November USDJPY
07 November USDJPY
The pullback figures are skewed, particularly for the second trade. There were some pretty obvious decending channels setting up from the first trade to today, with the exception of the large move up to 9948. Had I the time to daytrade, I would definitely have tried to play the waves. In the current context, I didn’t consider anything less than 100 pips to be a pullback.
I would say more, but I’m tired.
Happy trading.
Update 0745 PST 12 November: USDJPY drops to 9550! I’m seeing red!!!
andrewunknown said
There’s consolation in one thing: you were right yesterday when you projected another couple hundred pips.
“Something in the flows is changing, has been changing, over the past week. And it’s not just China’s “rescue” package.”
From where do you derive an idea flows are changing? Just a raw feel/intuitive supposition, or the evolving construction of the chart? Or maybe something else? Don’t worry: I’m not fishing for a super-duper proprietary indicator. ;-)
Other than some of the more obscure (or at least less well-traveled in my experience: CHF/JPY, NZD/JPY come to mind), I find USD/JPY to be the most stubborn and contrarian among JPY crosses. I view it by way of GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY, which may be why I feel USD/JPY trends lack the same…resolve. Late 11/10 to early 11/12 is a good example of that; but finally the pair capitulated, kicking and screaming.
Some nice trades on my end that coincided with yours on Guppy, EUR/JPY and CAD/JPY. I set up buy limits to completely flatten the trade today after scaling out partly this morning due to time constraints; as it turns out, should’ve spent the extra minute to leave a bit to run. Missed almost 700 pips on Guppy. That’ll teach me to play it conservatively. Next time by Jove I’m going all in.
The Lonely Trader said
Small consolation. Thanks for pointing that out man. The damnedest thing is that I had it all planned out — take partial at 9465 and lower trailing stop. I can almost feel how it would have felt had I just followed the darn plan.
Nice play on the crosses. For some reason, I am completely intimidated by yen crosses. I’m convinced it is all those housewives handling the family finances in Japan. They all have a red phone with a direct line to the BoJ and a blue phone with a line to MoF. And it is a one-way line. Meaning, the wives are taking the calls. Spooky.
The flows…it’s a combination of several factors. Chief among them being the strange ticks (on the tick charts, of course). There are some interesting patterns there — not “triangles” and such, but tick frequency and up/down ratios. Then there is the battle of importers/exporters and the almost contrived nature of the BoJ’s last vote. And the rumors of intervention. And the rumors of FX diversification. And…yada, yada, yada. Nothing is transparent over there. But you probably know that.
Time constraints…yeah tell me about it. Working full time in an unrelated field is difficult. Annoying. But it cuts both ways. I could be making money trading full time. Or I could be losing money trading full time. So maybe this is the best arrangement for now.
I can only imagine what it must be like with two little ones to take care of. We have two border collies and they are demanding enough. Parenthood is a miracle in and of itself. You gotta be five minutes ahead of the little tots with a plan or you’re toast. (I only know this from being an uncle of several nieces and nephews. I was naive enough to babysit more than two at a time and must have a penchant for punishment because I keep volunteering.)
If you go all in, there are three things you’ll need:
(1) A barf bag,
(2) A seatbelt, and
(3) A rosary.
Especially with CADJPY.
Good to have you back man. And nice trading.
andrewunknown said
Nevertheless, your plan was sound going in – I don’t have to tell you that counts for a lot more than raking in big pips through some vague, unfounded premonition that “it’s going down”. To me, looking at another trader’s work I find that far more impressive because it’s indicative of discipline and rationality. Getting out might’ve been a different story, but I can’t fault you for that: in this market context with so many moving parts and developments that are impossible to anticipate, sitting on a trade on that pair will likely make you restless. It is very difficult to see trades through sometimes, even if your initial basis for entering isn’t yet invalidated.
Who knows what the hell the BoJ will do? Thus far, any attempts to keep JPY from appreciating further have come to naught, and I recall public comments (maybe from a Shirakawa speech, not sure of the reference) about the likelihood of significant intervention if the market doesn’t work itself out. Apparently those selfish housewives aren’t satisfying their civic responsibility in between vacuuming and starching their husband’s shirts.
Parenthood is amazing, and pulling it off from one day to the next does sometimes feel like a miraculous event. Sometimes grueling (this past week for example, when we all had a sinus infection); but there is nothing more fascinating or beautiful than one’s own children. The realization once a second child arrives that you do actually love them just like the first (always wondered how that worked) is a mysterious thing: not that there were ever any doubt; but the capacity to love more than one child without hesitation or limits is unlike anything else. You must like those nieces and nephews if you’re willing to undergo that kind of hardship. I don’t have the knack for it that others do: more than one at a time when they’re very little gets overwhelming pretty quickly.
And no Casino Royale trades for me: I’m just disciplined enough to resist the folly of that idea. Speaking of Casino Royale, though, I’m looking forward to Quantum of Solace this weekend!
Thanks for the welcome back (again). I’ll try to stick around so you don’t have to continue sending those greeting cards by mail.
The Lonely Trader said
I have indeed been having a hard time seeing things through with USDJPY. I have the same problem with GBPJPY. Currently trading EURGBP off of the monthly charts — and you probably know where I’m going with that.
As for parenthood, I have two border collies. I dunno if that counts for anything, but it seems easier than the tots. (They herd me where I need to go…I’ll let you figure that one out.) I do like the N&Ns, however.
Oh, and if you’re wondering what happened to your comment, it was in my spam folder. I still work for a living and I’m no longer in Cairo, so that should explain the delay. Ahhh, the hassles we aspiring traders must deal with. (Aspiring in my case at least…)
solfest said
Those are beautiful trade spreadsheets LT. Inspirational analysis.
The Lonely Trader said
Sol, thanks.
knguyen said
These are very beautiful trade entries. How did you make them?
-k
The Lonely Trader said
I agree with you about the first entry, but not with the second. In the case of the first, it’s practice. In the case of the second, it’s practice. So I really don’t have a clue.
knguyen said
What I meant was what software did you use to create the format. Sorry I wasn’t clear.
To me, I always find it hard to make use of other traders’ journal because I wasn’t ‘there’, I can’t relate the trading experience to myself. However, what I find useful is how other traders operate (some insights, techniques, software,…). I have been reading some papers on your right panel :).
-k
The Lonely Trader said
K. Nguyen, I use Excel for those templates. Enjoy the articles.