Long NZDJPY initial
Posted by The Lonely Trader on November 20, 2008
Entry order triggered long at 00:04 this morning. Got my fill price at 5080 with no slippage. The spread was 6, however. Ouch. I am getting in here with an initial position to see what carry specs are going to do at this level. My uncle point is far, far below, with three more entry orders stacked at key price points.
I know I promised the worksheet on the EURGBP, but it will have to wait. Work and family have had to take priority. (I with I could say “family and work”, but for now it’s the other way around.) I have also neglected to post October’s trading summary — which could be interesting if only to see patterns in my decision-making (both the positive and negative). November itself will be a little sparse, obviously.
More to come.
Update 1216 PST: I’ve had a couple of responses to this trade idea from people who do not understand the model I am employing. (I think one of them is a spammer.) This isn’t the swing model. This is a position model with elements of a carry trade. So I am really not concerned that the pair “rolled over” on me. Had this been a swing trade, I would have been out before any losses could have been incurred. As I said above, I have entry buy orders stacked below.
I also need to reiterate that I am not writing for the purpose of providing trading advice or signals! (Like, DUH!) One conscientious person has emailed me with concern about how I trade and that it could be causing other traders to lose money. I frankly don’t understand how someone could get the wrong idea here. There are no advertisements. I don’t sell a trading course or signals service, and I do not endorse such products. I don’t even review them because I think most of them are offered by hawkers, not traders.
This blog is about my trading process and I regularly engage others about theirs in an effort to improve my own. Sometimes someone shows interest in what I am doing and challenges me to back it up — like a recent email I recieved from a very intelligent trader who suggested that perhaps overthink my trades. This is the feedback I appreciate the most! (And the ensuing debate!)
Please, if anyone is reading this for tips on where I think the EUR or USD or any other currency is going, move on! There are plenty of websites who will gladly tell you when, what and how to trade.
Cheers.
andrewunknown said
What’s this gibberish about no more signals? I was just becoming accustomed to piggybacking off your analysis. Looks as though I’ll be trawling the web for a new benefactor again.
But seriously, and in loose response to “overthinking”: I have comparatively uncritical feedback on your trade work-ups. “Trading journals” or something akin to that can be of great help, both as an historic record and a tool for introspection and emotional catharsis; but they can also be damn boring (for oneself as well as others), full of the wrong content and become a slate for hyper-introspection, neurosis and analytical pedantry. I’m not Steenbarger so what the hell do I know (smirk), but I don’t think you’re off-the-track/subject to any of the latter. Insofar as the blog conveys, anyway.
In the interest of efficiency and honest self-evaluation: do you need to spell out the context, pre and post? Is that for reference later, an integral part of your own preparation/reflection, for purpose of presentation, or a combination?
My pre-work and debrief isn’t quite as organized as yours; and that’s what I would call it: a matter of organization. Any trader with an instinct for self-preservation, who is even minimally articulate and who is committed to improvement will and must do just what you do, in some fashion. The exposition may not be as organized or linearly composed – it may be purely mental and more stream-of-consciousness (I have my own opinion about which is better) – but any trader ought to do it as a matter-of-course. If time is pressing, a cursory glance with what is essential; if not, then further detail. Investigation of context and then one’s own conception of how to position themselves is incredibly beneficial, I think. If this is how you do it and it seems edifying, why not? As I’m fond of quoting from St. Paul: “Test everything; hold on to the good”.
The Lonely Trader said
A, you nailed it. My pre- and post-trade stuff is catalogued and mined for patterns and are cross-referenced with my decisions and the trade result. For example, one question I ask when I begin a detailed audit of my trades is, “What market conditions are better to avoid?” Another: “What conditions are better for pressing the trade?”
After I’ve built up a good number of trades in varying contexts, the theory (yes, theory, because I don’t have several hundred live swing trades catalogued) is that I will have solid statistical data on which market contexts are optimal for trading. This is an enormous amount of work, but necessary in the beginning stages of launching a new method. As I get more familiar with the behavior of the currency pair in question (or other instrument), the need for detail decreases on those worksheets. The focus is then shifted to other parts of the process. Also, this is only for swing and position trades. Short term models are handled differently. And by the way, my analytical process for ascertaining my read on the market I’m trading is defined in detail — I published it on Lonely Trader 1.0 — but nobody seemed interested in discussing it. Granted, it was long and personalized. The largest benefit of all this work is that it enhances my mental map of the markets and forces me to be aware of the big picture even as I drill down and try to focus on the trade.
One day, perhaps in the far future, I won’t need any of this because it will be second nature. I have a feeling the markets will always change in ways that make this impossible and I’m okay with that.
I’m not perfect in my execution — as is evident from my trading on this blog. I make mistakes and I’m not afraid to expose them. Even the embarrassing mistakes. And when time is short, I don’t always put in the effort for a complete narrative. That’s okay. That’s reality for someone with a full time job and a life besides.
To your St Paul, I add Ram Dass: “Question not whether it is true. Rather, question whether it serves.”
solfest said
Amen Brother.
People are continually asking me for advice. First of all I could be a complete moron, secondly I have no idea what your risk tolerance is.
You must trade and invest your plan and only your plan. I cannot trade yours, and you cannot trade mine.
“We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit.” Aristotle
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