EURGBP short initial at 8690

One of the standing orders from the EURGBP short idea filled at 8690 early this morning. This is an initial position much like the last one, but at a better price. I have another order sitting at 8990 and beyond that, we’ll see. My target really depends on how many orders are filled. If price moves my way without making any more highs — a highly unlikely scenario — I will add at key points on the way down. Time is an issue here because of the interest rate differential. Let’s see what develops…

I still have not added to the NZDJPY trade. I prefer to wait until after 48 is cracked. Then I will see what develops. If commodity prices continue to fall, I don’t see the current picture changing even if demand picks up. And there is an outside chance the OCR will fall below 4.5, which will add a lot more uncertainty to my idea. So, soft commodity prices have to stabilize and better reflect increasing demand and the economic picture also has to stabilize generally. I believe all of this will happen sometime next year, but of course anything can happen.

I am still watching AUDJPY and USDJPY, but don’t see any convincing ideas there at the moment for more longer term trades. I did take my first short term trade on the scalping model in EURUSD the other night, which was a success. I haven’t taken any other short term trades because my schedule has been thrown off. One of my rules is to step aside when that happens.

Related posts:
http://thelonelytrader.wordpress.com/2008/11/16/trade-from-the-week-of-9-november/
http://thelonelytrader.wordpress.com/2008/11/18/closing-eurgbp-short/
http://thelonelytrader.wordpress.com/2008/11/20/long-nzdjpy-initial/