All, this is the end of the blog. I’m moving on! I will actively keep in touch with you all through your blogs, Skype and email.

I really need to focus my energies on my trading and on my new direction. I know you all understand — hell some of you might even be happy that I’m leaving the blogosphere.

Whatever the case, good luck to all of you. My work here is done!

Cheers,
TLT

PS: Parting shot — the yen will make a comeback yet!

Sydney, October 21.
China”s Sep industrial production number has been leaked to the market 25 hours ahead of its scheduled release. Market expectations were for +13.3% Vs 12.3% previously, with the number coming in better than expected at 14.1%. The data has not yet been confirmed by an official source and may still change upon release at 02:00 GMT on Thursday. (ThomsonReuters)

0343 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/CNY up midday at 6.8272 in OTC trade vs 6.8265 yesterday close; trading between 6.8269-6.8275. Shanghai-based dealer with foreign bank tips pair to trade as high as 6.8288 in afternoon. “The fixing was set high by recent standards, and given the dollar’s overnight strength there’s some room to move.” (DEM)

Does this mean the yen will finally appreciate against the USD? Dunno. Have to wait and see. Are the numbers even accurate? No idea. Chinese data reflects whatever the central government wants. Much more so than the US or Europe or Japan. This will surely add fuel to China’s fire. It’s having a good year.

Timeframe for this trade was one to three days. Seems the bids just kept coming at the handle. Rumor has it the French started the buying spree but I don’t know who has bought the second test of 14900. In any case, I’m out and will begin nursing a 6E long put on yesterday – I am counting on a retest of 15000 before the week is out. Maybe the market will grant me my wish of 15080!

I’ve been eyeing GBP pairs — a bit late in the game, but whatever. Lots of talk that GBPJPY has a lot more room to the upside. I am of the opinion that while there may be another leg higher left in the pair, GBP has to correct across the board before such a move can be sustained. Also, yen has to allow this to happen as well, but it looks like Fujii and others in the monetary-fiscal establishment have the speculative community just as confused as they are, so my guess is no direction in USDJPY for the rest of the week. For direction to happen, there has to be a catalyst and I just don’t see it. Any opinions out there?

Flipped from long to short. Targeting 14840. Will reverse to long if lower prices seen and shoot for a longer term 154xx. The danger of entering late in the N.A. session is that attacks on levels often succeed in thinner markets. I expect there will be one tonight and I may puke up this trade before I’ve given it time to settle.

I’ve been struggling a bit with timing issues lately, so I anticipate this will be a scary trade. But I can’t deny the logic of playing the consolidation ranges with everything that is going on. It is only a matter of time before 1.5 is tested and broken — but the market (and my trading) is telling me to wait.

Flows and fundies point to a temporary top at or near this area. China rumored to be offering this morning at 14960. For that matter, other central banks are rumored to have been buying down around 14900 and 14850. Stories about central banks buying the USD to prop up their local currencies, and then selling USD for euros. I suspect US-based banks are doing the same. Geithner is telling the “American people” — which would include Canada and all of LATAM, if it were up to me; why is it that US citizens think they are the only Americans? – that they need to tighten their belts. Funny,  but consumers in the US have already done so. What are you doing with all that treasure, Mr. Geithner? (Okay, I’ll stop picking on the messenger….)

Barriers above at 14970/75, 15000/10 and perhaps a bit higher from there. Lots of stops above 15010 will push this pair easily to 15025/35 if that level is breached. Support below at 14900, 14850/25 and 14675/50. Big support at 14450 and 14175. The proverbial line is drawn at 14045 or so. Below there, and I suspect it’s heading for 1.35.

Monday 19th     Tuesday 20th   Wednesday 21st   Thursday 22nd   Friday 23rd
    $/Y & E/Y       USD/JPY         USD/JPY         $/Y & E/Y       USD/JPY
  90.00 - 150M    88.50 - 150M    88.00 - 150M    90.10 - 150M    87.10 - 200M
  90.20 - 200M    89.75 - 150M    88.75 - 150M    90.80 - 200M    88.50 - 150M
    EUR/USD       90.00 - 500M    90.00 - 150M    90.05 - 100M    88.00 - 200M
  1.4980 - 200M   90.60 - 300M    90.10 - 100M    89.50 - 200M    90.00 - 250M
  1.4900 - 180M     EUR/USD       90.50 - 200M    132.00 - 150M       CABLE
    GBP/USD       1.4810 - 150M     EUR/USD         EUR/USD       1.6000 - 100M
  1.6000 - 200M   1.5300 - 300M   1.5025 - 200M   1.4680 - 200M     EUR/USD
    AUD/USD       1.5000 - 200M     1.50 OT       1.4750 - 500M   1.5100 - 200M
  0.9100 - 100M      150 OT         GBP & E/        AUD/USD       1.4920 - 150M
  A/NZD 1.2050      AUD/USD       1.6000 - 100M   0.9055 - 100M     USD/CAD
    GBP/JPY       0.8940 - 100M   0.9150 - 100M   0.9000 - 300M   1.0430 - 100M
  140.50 - 100M                     CAD & AUD     0.9300 - 100M     AUD/JPY
  145.60 - 100M     NZD/USD       1.0910 - 100M   AUD/JPY 79.10   76.00 - 100M 

Monday 26th     Tuesday 27th   Wednesday 28th   Thursday 29th   Friday 30th
    USD/JPY         USD/JPY         EUR/USD         USD/JPY         USD/JPY
  88.50 - 150M    88.00 - 200M    1.4680 - 1BLN   87.00 - 150M    87.55 - 100M
  89.60 - 300M    92.50 - 150M    1.4500 - 250M   87.20 - 150M
  90.00 - 150M    93.00 - 200M      1.50 OT       88.10 - 150M
  91.00 - 100M      EUR/USD         USD/JPY       90.50 - 150M      EUR/USD
  88.00 - 200M    1.4000 - 1BLN   88.00 - 200M      EUR/USD       1.50 - 500M
                  1.5000 - 500M   88.60 - 150M    1.4450 - 150M     AUD/JPY
    EUR/USD           CABLE       90.60 - 100M    1.4550 - 200M   76.00 - 100M
  1.3500 - 400M   1.5900 - 100M   91.00 - 150M        CABLE
                    USD/CAD       92.75 - 150M    1.6550 - 100M
    USD/CAD       1.0100 - 100M   90.00 - 300M
  1.1350 - 100M     AUD/USD           CABLE                           CAD
                  0.9400 - 100M   1.6200 - 100M                   1.0400 - 100M
                  0.9250 - 100M     AUD/USD
                  0.9150 - 100M   0.8900 - 150M
                  0.8725 - 150M     GBP/NZD
                  0.8580 - 100M   2.3000 - 100M
Source: IFR Markets

I had posted an update and a chart on the last post, but somehow WordPress reverted my update to the original version and the chart disappeared — so here it is again.

At 2328 PST on 14 October or thereabouts I was filled EURUSD long at 14946′5. I then attached a chart to that effect:

So there you go. I’m still long and will add below if 146xx is seen. Targeting another retest of 1. 5 and higher, depending on the price action.

There. Now wordpress can’t erase my stuff and you can all see why I’m getting hammered. (Also long yen futs — HAMMERED.)

Definitely on the wrong side of the trade today. I knew the dip was coming, just didn’t know when. Wondering if perhaps this won’t end up being a correction — but the odds aren’t very good because we still have to get through earnings season. If anything, we’re in a wait and see but increasingly anxious mood due to the levels we’re trading at. (Am I wrong here?) 

I think the tailwinds will eventually carry the day however, and we will close near the levels of the European open in most currency pairs and in the S&P and currency futs. Maybe a bit off — as in less than 0.2%-0.3% off of yesterday’s close in most of the instruments I watch. Still, for someone trading 100 contracts in the S&P or 6J, that’s quite a bit of moolah — but that’s not me so no worries. Or, at any rate, no panic. Yet. I’m only trading one contract.

Not sure if this dip was big enough to bring in the players needed to take EURUSD beyond 1.5, however. The market is just too long euros, still, and too long yen, for that matter. Or that’s my opinion. It doesn’t help that I’m also long euros and yen! Lots of interesting things happening in the crosses right now, so looking for opportunities there.

I’m getting hammered today, so I might just step back and not force things, if you know what I mean. GS earnings due out soon. Estimate at Rightline is 4.24 EPS, but I think it will be higher (Alan says as high as 6!) and that the market will have pretty much priced this in — I have no idea why I think that. Could be that I read it somewhere but I have absolutely no way of quantifying that statement.

Price is currently hovering at 14955/65. Would really like to see stops below 50 cleared out before the next run higher but I doubt it will happen before I fall asleep. I suspect I won’t see that level before the first test of 85/95, but I’ve put a limit buy order in at 51 with a sell order at 82 if executed. (I won’t be reversing, however.) Everyone is talking about very large barriers at 15000/10. If they are large enough to precipitate a cascade of profit taking then all the better. I’ll add again! Goldman is predicting 1.55 in the next six months, but they also said the pair would trough at 1.35 in the next twelve. Or was it three and six? I can’t recall.

I wonder if the market has priced in earnings from GS tomorrow — and the other major players as well. I have to wonder if the reaction won’t be muted. Will traders push the S&P up to 1100 this week? Your guess is as good as mine. If I were feeling froggy, I would go long here at 1088 (I’m watching ES dec 09) but the potential carnage of a correction would be very bad for my smallish account.

At the moment, I’m playing both sides of the yen in the Frankfurt noise — a few ticks here, a few there. Hopefully I won’t get hammered from the wrong side.

You all know where the rest of the currencies, indices and commodities are trading, so I won’t bother you with a bunch of quotes.

This guy has hijacked my blog — and it’s a wordpress blog!

http://www.theautoforextrading.com/

Not sure why people do this. I don’t get a lot of blog traffic and I don’t try to get it. Why pick me? The same thing happened to TraderGav a few months back, I think.

If I can’t resolve this, I will make the whole blog password protected.

Gav,  any ideas?

Anyone?

Doubtful that my EURUSD target will be hit today, given the number of failures below 14840. But there is an option level of decent size and interest at 14850 that could serve as a magnet. It isn’t a barrier, to my knowlege, so the level won’t necessarily be defended as stronly as if it were. (I assume a lot, I know.) But hey, if I can get out of this trade by the end of the week, I’ll consider it a success.

                     [Options Maturity Calendar]                [>>]
  Tuesday 13th   Wednesday 14th   Thursday 15th   Friday 16th     Monday 19th
    USD/JPY         USD/JPY         USD/JPY         USD/JPY         $/Y & E/Y
  90.00 - 350M                    88.25 - 100M    88.00 - 150M    87.00 - 150M
  90.50 - 200M    88.40 - 100M    88.40 - 150M    86.80 - 150M    88.45 - 100M
    EUR/USD       91.00 - 200M    89.75 - 250M    87.00 - 150M    90.00 - 150M
  1.4850 Exotic     EUR/USD       90.00 - 150M    90.70 - 150M    90.20 - 200M
  1.4850 - 350M   1.4600 - 200M     EUR/USD         EUR/USD       131.20 - 150M
    EUR/CHF       1.4985 - 150M   1.4600 - 150M   1.4400 - 150M   131.30 - 100M
  1.5135 - 200M     GBP/USD       1.4630 - 100M   1.4815 - 150M   131.45 - 100M
  1.5170 - 200M   1.6250 - 100M   1.4680 - 250M   1.5175 - 100M     GBP/USD
    AUD/USD         USD/CAD       1.4780 - 100M     GBP/USD       1.5950 - 100M
  90.50 - 150M    1.0515 - 100M   1.4800 - 150M   1.6000 - 100M   1.6000 - 100M
  90.45 - 200M    1.0800 - 100M   1.4850 - 150M     USD/CAD         AUD/USD
  90.65 - 100M      AUD/USD       1.5000 - 150M   1.0400 - 100M   0.9100 - 100M
  90.60 - 100M    0.8725 - 100M     GBP/USD       1.0750 - 100M   0.8900 - 100M
  90.00 - 100M      AUD/JPY       1.5605 - 100M   1.0850 - 100M   0.8800 - 100M
    USD/CAD       78.00 - 100M      AUD/USD       1.0955 - 100M   0.8430 - 100M